A Political Prediction

[4thofeleven]

Sarah Palin will either not run for president in 2012, or if she does, will not make it out of the primaries.

I thought I'd record this prediction for future reference because I'm seeing a lot of doomsaying both on American blogs and, oddly, in the Australian media from people convinced that her resignation is somehow part of some machivellian plot to better position herself for a run for the White House. I don't see this happening, and if that is what she's planning, I'm looking forward to watching her crash and burn over the next few years.

Yes, yes, Bush was elected despite being largely incoherent and innept - but he at least had a few terms as Texas governor under his belt. Even the most die-hard Republicans are going to think twice before nominating someone who's main achivements are 'Failed vice-presidential bid' and 'single incomplete term as Alaskan governor', especially against an incumbant Obama.

If I'm wrong... well, she still wouldn't stand a chance of actually winning, and it'd be a damned entertaining election.

Comments

[sunnyskywalker]

Also, while nominating a woman for VP is a great publicity stunt, I'm not sure how many Republicans would actually nominate a woman for president, considering how deeply the more, er, old-fashioned brands of Christians have gotten into the party.

[4thofeleven.livejournal.com]

I think it'd really hit her hard once her vp pick was being discussed - I think there'd be a lot of voters who might say they'd vote for her in the abstract, but would start having second thoughts once a male candidate was made 'subordinate' to her. And there's no way in hell the Republican Party would go for a ticket with two women on it... Hell, there's no way the Democratic Party would go for that.

(Mental note - update icon to Calrissian '12)

[sunnyskywalker]

On the other hand, a Republican ticket with two women might make everyone else go into cardiac arrest from shock, so they might try it. Then they could pull a Zarek-Roslin stunt and have the two resign and let the next two (previously maneuvered into place) in line take over in exchange for high posts themselves.