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Political Predictions for 2010
Jan. 2nd, 2010 02:59 am- The Victorian state election will be a rather quiet affair, with both parties trying very hard not to publicise their own existence, due largely to both of them being utterly incompetent. Don't want to place any wagers on the outcome, I suspect it will be very close.
- The Federal ALP will continue holding the threat of a double-dissolution election over the opposition's head for most of the year, but will end up going for just a regular senate election in the end, probably around late September. Despite Tony Abbot's vaunted 'people skills' and charisma, the Liberals will fail to make any real inroads against Labor's popularity, due to a combination of infighting, lack of any real policy, and the fact that everyone hates him.
- The British general election will prove slightly less of a total disaster for Labor than expected, but will still be a landslide win for the Conservatives. Various political commentators will take this as proof of their own pet theories, ignoring the fact that Labor's collapse had been obvious for years.
- The Republicans will pick up a handful of senate seats in the US congressional elections; various people who should know better will take this as proof that the American public is inherently right-wing, having failed to notice the results owe less to a swing to the right as much as the result of a diminished turnout among left-leaning voters, due to voter apathy towards a seemingly ineffectual Democratic government.
- Justifications for the Afghanistan war will become increasingly unclear, as it becomes increasingly obvious that the Karzai government is both utterly corrupt and lacks any real local support. No real progress will be made by coalition forces, owing to it being unclear as to what would qualify as 'progress'. So, same as usual.
- At least one of these predictions will prove utterly and embarrassingly wrong.
- The Federal ALP will continue holding the threat of a double-dissolution election over the opposition's head for most of the year, but will end up going for just a regular senate election in the end, probably around late September. Despite Tony Abbot's vaunted 'people skills' and charisma, the Liberals will fail to make any real inroads against Labor's popularity, due to a combination of infighting, lack of any real policy, and the fact that everyone hates him.
- The British general election will prove slightly less of a total disaster for Labor than expected, but will still be a landslide win for the Conservatives. Various political commentators will take this as proof of their own pet theories, ignoring the fact that Labor's collapse had been obvious for years.
- The Republicans will pick up a handful of senate seats in the US congressional elections; various people who should know better will take this as proof that the American public is inherently right-wing, having failed to notice the results owe less to a swing to the right as much as the result of a diminished turnout among left-leaning voters, due to voter apathy towards a seemingly ineffectual Democratic government.
- Justifications for the Afghanistan war will become increasingly unclear, as it becomes increasingly obvious that the Karzai government is both utterly corrupt and lacks any real local support. No real progress will be made by coalition forces, owing to it being unclear as to what would qualify as 'progress'. So, same as usual.
- At least one of these predictions will prove utterly and embarrassingly wrong.