A Political Prediction

[4thofeleven]

Sarah Palin will either not run for president in 2012, or if she does, will not make it out of the primaries.

I thought I'd record this prediction for future reference because I'm seeing a lot of doomsaying both on American blogs and, oddly, in the Australian media from people convinced that her resignation is somehow part of some machivellian plot to better position herself for a run for the White House. I don't see this happening, and if that is what she's planning, I'm looking forward to watching her crash and burn over the next few years.

Yes, yes, Bush was elected despite being largely incoherent and innept - but he at least had a few terms as Texas governor under his belt. Even the most die-hard Republicans are going to think twice before nominating someone who's main achivements are 'Failed vice-presidential bid' and 'single incomplete term as Alaskan governor', especially against an incumbant Obama.

If I'm wrong... well, she still wouldn't stand a chance of actually winning, and it'd be a damned entertaining election.